Research tool

Oil and gas producer calculator

Type the figures from a producer's own results release and see what its share price assumes about oil. It works for any producer, including companies that report only on SEDAR+.

Everything below is arithmetic on the numbers you enter. Nothing is fetched, and nothing leaves your browser.

The company and the price

From your own screen and the company's balance sheet.

The last close on your own brokerage screen.
The cover of the financial statements, or the buyback section of the release. A weighted average is fine if that is all there is.
The release's net debt table. Enter a negative number if the company holds net cash.

Production going forward

Use the run-rate you want to value, for example after a sale has closed.

Heavy plus light oil from the production table. Enter the sales you want priced off WTI.
The NGL line of the production table.
The gas line of the production table. Six mcf make one barrel of oil equivalent.

Total: 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

Prices and costs

Most of these sit in the release's operating netback table, per barrel of oil equivalent (boe).

A company-wide discount some producers guide to (the corporate wellhead differential). Enter 0 if there is none.
Realized NGL price divided by WTI, both in the same currency. Around 30 to 40 is common.
The realized gas price in the release.
Net operating expense per boe, or the guidance midpoint.
Transportation expense per boe.
G&A per boe, usually in the guidance table.
Realized hedging gain or loss per boe (a cost is negative). Leave blank or 0 to leave hedging out.
Coupon times principal on notes plus any credit-facility interest.

Capital and returns

From the company's guidance and dividend declaration.

The capital budget in the release.
Sustaining capital, if the company gives it. Otherwise use your own estimate.
Spending on asset retirement obligations.
The annual rate. Enter 0 if none.

Reserves (optional)

From the annual information form or the year-end results release (the NI 51-101 reserves report). Skip this block if you do not have them.

PDP reserves.
Total proved reserves.
Used for enterprise value per 2P barrel.
Net present value at a 10% discount rate.
Net present value at a 10% discount rate.
Net present value at a 10% discount rate.
Leave blank to use the net debt above. Use the year-end figure if the reserves are as of year-end and a sale has since changed the balance sheet.

What you want to compare against

Two target yields for the oil-price solver, and the company's own breakeven if it states one.

Free funds flow after growth capital, divided by market value.
A higher bar for comparison.
Some producers state the WTI price at which free funds flow covers maintenance capital and the dividend.

Oil-price cases

Each case is a WTI price with the exchange rate, oil discount, royalty and tax that go with it. Add a case at the company's stated breakeven to check the model against it.

CaseWTI (US$)Exchange rateOil discount (US$)Royalty (%)Income tax (%)Remove
1
2
3
4
Up to six.

What the price assumes

At the price you entered the market value is C$4,000 million and the enterprise value C$4,400 million, or C$110,000 for each barrel of oil equivalent produced a day (40,000 boe a day).

On your inputs the price equals a 6.0% free-cash yield after growth capital at WTI of about US$96, and 8.0% at about US$104. On maintenance capital alone the figures are about US$83 and US$93.

Funds flow covers maintenance capital, decommissioning and the dividend at WTI of about US$63.6.

Oil-price cases

WTIFunds flowFree funds flow, growth programYieldFree funds flow, maintenance onlyYieldEV / funds flow
US$50219-151-3.8%-51-1.3%20.1x
US$65362-8-0.2%922.3%12.1x
US$804861162.9%2165.4%9.1x
US$956032335.8%3338.3%7.3x

Millions of C$. Funds flow is after royalties, costs, interest, any hedging result you entered, and tax. Yields divide by the market value of C$4,000 million.

Yield on the market value across oil prices

Free funds flow yield on the market value as WTI rises from US$37 to US$105, after the growth program and on maintenance capital alone, with the 6.0% and 8.0% target lines.-9%2%12%6.0%8.0%US$37US$71US$105WTI, US$ a barrel
After the growth programMaintenance capital onlyYour target yieldsDots mark your oil-price cases.
How the model works
  • Oil is priced off WTI less the oil discount, converted at the exchange rate, less the wellhead adjustment. NGLs are a share of WTI. Gas is a flat price you enter.
  • Royalties are a percent of sales and income tax a percent of funds flow before tax. Each case carries its own rates, and the model draws straight lines between the cases you enter, so the solver can work between them.
  • Funds flow is sales less royalties, operating cost, transportation, G&A, interest and the hedging result you enter, less tax. Working capital is left out.
  • Free funds flow is funds flow less capital and decommissioning spending, shown after the growth program and after maintenance capital alone. Yields divide by the market value (price times shares).
  • Reserve value per share is the before-tax present value you enter, less net debt on the reserve date, divided by shares. It ignores tax, G&A and cash flow since the reserve date.
  • The oil price a yield needs is found by trying prices from US$0 to US$300 until free funds flow matches the target.

The figures are yours: typed from a company's own release, not checked by Travis Valuation, with no data vendor involved. The results are arithmetic on your inputs, not a forecast and not a recommendation. Informational only, and not investment or tax advice.

Looking for a company report instead? Research a company