Weekly Issue #8
EQT Corporation (EQT) — $50.17 at Friday’s close
EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the United States, and it has signed a 10-year contract to fuel gas-turbine power for AI data centers, plus an agreement in principle to supply what’s described as one of the largest single-site natural gas purchases in North American history. The copper and uranium stocks chasing this same story trade at 19 to 148 times earnings. EQT trades at 11.0 times.
Here’s why it still looks like a stock to avoid: it’s trading near a 52-week low, and its CEO sold roughly $15 million of his own stock this year — at prices above where it trades today. Read on its own, that is exactly the kind of thing that should make you suspicious.
So we didn’t read it on its own. We pulled the actual SEC filing. Its own footnote says the sales were made under a trading plan he adopted five months earlier — a fixed schedule, set up in advance, specifically so a later sale can’t be read as trading on inside information. We also checked whether anything personal — a divorce, a legal problem — might explain it. Nothing turned up.
A CEO selling stock is a headline. A trading plan filed five months earlier is the whole story.
The deals, named and dated
EQT has real deals on this, not a story about it: a signed 10-year deal to supply the CPV Shay Energy Center in West Virginia, priced off power prices rather than the discounted local gas price; and an agreement in principle, announced in July 2025, to supply a 4.4 gigawatt natural-gas plant in Pennsylvania built for AI infrastructure.
EQT Corporation (EQT) — $50.17 at the Oct 2 close, 26% off its 52-week high
| The check | Reading | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Price to earnings | 11.0× | ✓ Well under Graham’s 15 |
| Price to book | 1.2× | ✓ Under Graham’s 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 0.67 | ⚠ Fails Graham’s 2 — typical for the industry |
| Net debt to EBITDA | 0.9× | ✓ Manageable leverage |
| Piotroski F-Score | 7 / 9 | ✓ Solid quality |
| Dividend yield | 1.3% | Raised in Nov 2025, not cut — safe, not an income play |
Ratios from Financial Modeling Prep at the Oct 2, 2026 close — not app figures; the app runs on EQT’s own SEC filings (see EQT’s own page →). Earnings ratios are trailing twelve months; balance-sheet figures are from the June 30, 2026 quarter. Analyst consensus: 30 buy, 15 hold, 0 sell; target $70.33, about 40% above today’s price.
Wide usage doesn’t mean a stable price. A copper mine can’t respond to a price spike for a decade. A gas well can be turned on in months — and that’s exactly why the price keeps falling back down.
What could break it
The biggest deal isn’t signed. The 4.4-gigawatt Pennsylvania deal was announced in July 2025 as an “agreement in principle,” and I found no definitive contract since.
Most of its gas isn’t under these contracts. The AI deals are real, but they cover a slice of production — the rest still sells at whatever the spot price does.
Earnings are genuinely volatile, not just noisy. A net loss in 2021, then a swing between 45 cents and nearly $5 a share since — partly the gas price, partly hedging gains and losses that run through reported earnings regardless of what actually got sold.
The AI buildout itself has cracks. The same week as this issue: record credit-default-swap pricing on Oracle, layoffs there exceeding 20,000, and a force majeure notice on a New Mexico data center. If that spreads, the demand behind EQT’s contracts could arrive later, or smaller, than priced in.
Skin in the game
I don’t own EQT.
Which account?
The usual advice, for once: EQT is a US dividend payer, so it belongs in an RRSP, which is exempt from the 15% US withholding tax under the Canada-US treaty. In a TFSA or a non-registered account, that 15% comes off the top before you see it.
The workfile
Everything above is the short version. The full write-up has all three AI supply deals, the SEC filing behind the CEO-sale finding, five years of statements, Graham’s eight tests scored honestly, and the copper, uranium and bank stocks considered instead. It is in this week’s workfile →
Your turn 👇
What else does the AI buildout actually need? Hit reply with a name.
Send me your pick →Curtis Travis is a retired AACI appraiser (B.Comm) and founder of Travis Valuation. He owns shares of Lennar, Amazon, Walmart, Costco, TD, Scotiabank, Dick’s, Berkshire Hathaway and OMAB, all named in past issues — he does not own EQT. Scorecard, price history, five-year financial statements and analyst targets are from Financial Modeling Prep, as of the Oct 2, 2026 close — not figures the Travis Valuation app carries; the app runs on EQT’s own SEC filings alone. The CEO stock-sale finding is from EQT’s own SEC Form 4 filing. The AI data-center supply deals are reported by Natural Gas Intelligence and East Daley; the Pennsylvania plant is described in that reporting as an agreement in principle, not yet a signed contract. Prices move. Informational only — not a recommendation, and not tax advice. Do your own diligence.